Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.108319 0.126561 0.147611 0.173853 0.205909 0.244073 0.293361
2025-10-12 0.087403 0.110631 0.140194 0.181168 0.237420 0.313346 0.426050
2025-10-19 0.071365 0.096647 0.131649 0.184944 0.266414 0.390414 0.602036
2025-10-26 0.059284 0.085256 0.124052 0.188522 0.297802 0.485325 0.855672
2025-11-02 0.048428 0.073319 0.113035 0.184393 0.317413 0.573369 1.158455
2025-11-09 0.039197 0.061993 0.100487 0.174570 0.325091 0.647548 1.498511
2025-11-16 0.033723 0.055716 0.095047 0.176323 0.357311 0.793728 2.153914
2025-11-23 0.029205 0.050195 0.089752 0.177120 0.389592 0.966063 3.106745
2025-11-30 0.025919 0.046271 0.086634 0.181874 0.435303 1.214502 4.738226
2025-12-07 0.023061 0.042610 0.083238 0.185216 0.481092 1.511825 7.261431
2025-12-14 0.020059 0.038106 0.077063 0.179984 0.501329 1.750768 10.235594
2025-12-21 0.016739 0.032383 0.067009 0.161680 0.472442 1.777628 12.031544
2025-12-28 0.015142 0.030151 0.064734 0.164705 0.521271 2.230271 19.745398
2026-01-04 0.013988 0.028694 0.064023 0.172343 0.595149 2.948989 36.509217
2026-01-11 0.012813 0.026982 0.062309 0.176560 0.661552 3.785284 67.383769
2026-01-18 0.011774 0.025411 0.060624 0.180499 0.733248 4.870778 131.958303
2026-01-25 0.010612 0.023346 0.057148 0.177024 0.768380 5.799150 234.707251
2026-02-01 0.009435 0.021064 0.052591 0.168010 0.768626 6.443240 375.744539
2026-02-08 0.008732 0.019881 0.050993 0.169968 0.837191 8.181058 872.460044
2026-02-15 0.008083 0.018743 0.049286 0.170964 0.904077 10.309064 2249.534063
2026-02-22 0.007595 0.017954 0.048497 0.175717 1.005986 13.749938 8464.272866
2026-03-01 0.007125 0.017142 0.047461 0.179088 1.106043 18.141709 44414.295341
2026-03-08 0.006542 0.015932 0.044872 0.174193 1.135613 21.343683 214287.753675